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Immunocore Holdings plc (IMCR)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 net product revenue (KIMMTRAK) was $84.1M, up 5% sequentially vs. Q3 and up vs. $67.6M in Q4 2023; full-year 2024 net sales were $310.0M (+30% YoY), supported by continued US penetration and new ex-US launches .
  • EPS was a loss of $0.47 in Q4 2024 (vs. $0.40 in Q4 2023) and net loss was $23.8M; operating loss was $19.5M, with higher R&D tied to Phase 3 programs (TEBE‑AM, ATOM, PRISM‑MEL‑301) and broader pipeline advancement .
  • Management guided to “incremental” KIMMTRAK growth in 2025, R&D expense increasing vs. 2024, and SG&A spending mostly consistent with Q4 2024 levels; cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $820.4M at year-end, with the $50M Pharmakon loan repaid in November 2024 .
  • Stock narrative catalysts: HIV MAD data in Q1 2025, continued Phase 3 enrollment (TEBE‑AM dose selection expected 2H 2025; PRISM dose selection 2H 2025), and ongoing ex‑US launches and US community expansion for KIMMTRAK .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • 11 consecutive quarters of KIMMTRAK revenue growth; Q4 net sales $84.1M and full-year $310.0M (+30% YoY), driven by US demand and launches in 14 new territories; management cited ~65% US penetration and ~12-month duration of therapy .
  • Pipeline execution across three Phase 3 trials (TEBE‑AM in 2L+ CM, ATOM adjuvant uveal melanoma, PRISM‑MEL‑301 brenetafusp+nivolumab in 1L CM), plus first patients dosed in new Phase 1 programs (IMC‑P115C PRAME‑HLE; IMC‑R117C PIWIL1) .
  • Strengthened balance sheet with $820.4M cash/marketable securities and full repayment of $50M Pharmakon loan, supporting clinical and commercial investment plans .

Selected management quotes:

  • “We delivered KIMMTRAK to more patients… achieved 5% growth in Q4 versus Q3 and 30% year‑on‑year revenue growth, culminating in $310 million in revenue for the year.” — CEO Bahija Jallal .
  • “We have delivered nearly 3 years of continuous net revenue growth… market penetration of around 65% in the U.S. with a duration of therapy ~12 months.” — Head of Commercial Ralph Torbay .

What Went Wrong

  • Q4 bottom line loss widened vs. prior year: EPS loss $0.47 and net loss $23.8M (vs. $0.40 and $19.7M in Q4 2023), reflecting increased R&D for Phase 3s and pipeline scale-up; operating loss was $19.5M .
  • European reimbursement remained challenging, with management highlighting ongoing price negotiations in key markets (Germany, France) and some sequential lumpiness; Q4 Europe net sales of $17.8M vs. $21.0M in Q3 .
  • Collaboration revenue was minimal/negative in recent quarters, leaving topline dominated by KIMMTRAK; Q4 total revenue equaled net product revenue ($84.1M) .

Financial Results

Quarterly P&L and Operating Metrics

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$75.4 $80.248 $84.052
Net Product Revenue ($USD Millions)$75.347 $80.248 $84.052
Loss from Operations ($USD Millions)$(16.017) $(8.502) $(19.452)
Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)$(11.616) $8.736 $(23.771)
EPS (Basic/Diluted) ($USD)$(0.23) $0.17 $(0.47)
R&D Expense ($USD Millions)$51.072 $52.770 $60.850
SG&A Expense ($USD Millions)$38.638 $35.532 $42.324

Q4 year-over-year:

MetricQ4 2023Q4 2024
Net Product Revenue ($USD Millions)$67.592 $84.052
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$70.162 $84.052
Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)$(19.730) $(23.771)
EPS (Basic/Diluted) ($USD)$(0.40) $(0.47)

KIMMTRAK Net Sales by Geography

GeographyQ2 2024 ($M)Q3 2024 ($M)Q4 2024 ($M)
United States$55.6 $57.3 $63.8
Europe$15.4 (net of $6.7M reserve) $21.0 $17.8
International$4.3 $1.9 $2.5
Total$75.3 $80.2 $84.1

KPIs and Balance Sheet

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Countries Launched (Cumulative)19 21 24
Countries Approved (Cumulative)38 38 39
US Penetration (HLA‑A*02:01 mUM, est.)——~65% (mgmt)
Duration of Therapy (US, est.)——~12 months (mgmt)
Cash & Marketable Securities ($M)$859.6 $901.3 $820.4
Debt RepaymentPlan to repay $50M by YE’24 Plan to repay $50M by YE’24 Repaid $50M in Nov’24

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
KIMMTRAK Revenue TrajectoryFY 2025None numeric; ongoing launches and US community focus Expect “incremental growth” in 2025, primarily US-driven, with modest ex‑US contribution Introduced (directional)
R&D ExpenseFY 2025R&D rising due to Phase 3s and expansions R&D to increase vs. 2024 as pipeline advances Raised (directional)
SG&A ExpenseFY 2025Stable to modest increases supporting commercial scale-up Mostly consistent with Q4 2024 levels through 2025 (typical variability) Maintained
HIV (IMC‑M113V) ReadoutQ1 2025Data moved from Q4’24 to Q1’25 Initial MAD data from 16 PLWH in Q1 2025 Reaffirmed timing
HBV (IMC‑I109V) Readout2H 2025SAD completion Q4’24 Present SAD data in 2H 2025 Updated timing
TEBE‑AM Enrollment & Data2H 2026Complete enrollment 1H 2026 Enrollment 1H 2026; data 2H 2026 Detailed timeline
PRISM‑MEL‑301 Dose Selection2H 2025First patient randomized in 2Q 2024 IDMC dose selection after 8–12 weeks follow‑up on initial cohorts, 2H 2025 New milestone detail

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024 and Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
KIMMTRAK Growth DriversUS community and duration driving growth; 19 launches by Q2; 21 by Q3 24 launches total; ~65% US penetration; ~12-month duration; +5% q/q Positive, sustained growth
European ReimbursementChallenging access; ongoing negotiations; reserve adjustments in Q2 Continued challenges; line of sight in Germany/France; UK NICE reversal cited Mixed; improving in select markets
Phase 3 Execution (Melanoma)Converted TEBE‑AM to registrational Ph3; ATOM randomization expected; PRISM started ATOM first patient randomized; TEBE‑AM/PRISM enrollment continues; dose selection milestones outlined On plan, timelines clarified
PRAME Franchise ExpansionASCO/ESMO signals in ovarian/CM; NSCLC data delayed while signals assessed Ongoing chemo combos in ovarian; NSCLC signal detection in earlier lines; PRAME‑HLE dose escalation Broadening, data in 12–18 months
Infectious Diseases (HIV/HBV)HIV MAD active dose reached; data deferred to Q1’25; HBV SAD completion by Q4’24 HIV MAD initial data Q1’25; HBV SAD data 2H’25; combinability potential discussed Near-term readouts
Autoimmune PlatformCandidates announced (T1D S118; universal dermatology) CTA/IND for S118 in 2H’25; U120 CTA/IND in 2026; tissue‑specific PD‑1 agonism emphasized Advancing to clinic
Commercial Tools/AINot highlightedAI tools aiding US community expansion Emerging lever

Management Commentary

  • “We have line of sight to a significant amount of data over the next 12–18 months, starting with the HIV data this quarter.” — CEO Bahija Jallal .
  • “In 2025, we expect incremental growth in metastatic uveal melanoma driven by further expansion into the U.S. community and additional launches.” — Head of Commercial Ralph Torbay .
  • “We anticipate that R&D expenses will increase relative to 2024… SG&A expenses… mostly consistent with Q4 2024 levels over the course of 2025.” — CFO Travis Coy .

Q&A Highlights

  • HIV program detail: 16-patient MAD initial data in Q1 2025; 12-week ATI used to detect control; dose selection balances safety and antiviral signals; expansion and pathway (potential randomized Phase 2) discussed .
  • Europe dynamics: Negotiations in Germany/France ongoing; lumpiness acknowledged; UK NICE decision overturned enabling launch .
  • PRISM‑MEL‑301 dose selection: IDMC to review 8–12 weeks of follow-up for efficacy/safety; no futility analysis; modeling to aid dose decision; interim data not planned for disclosure .
  • KIMMTRAK market penetration and duration: ~65% US share; two-thirds of prescriptions from community; duration tracking above trial experience .
  • Combinability and TPPs: Platform designed to be combinable; HIV HBV target mild CRS only; autoimmune aims for tissue-specific suppression without systemic immunosuppression .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) was unavailable at time of query due to an SPGI request limit; therefore, we cannot assess beat/miss versus consensus for Q4 2024. We will re-run the analysis once access is restored.
  • Reported actuals: Q4 total revenue $84.1M; net product revenue $84.1M; EPS $(0.47); net loss $(23.8)M; operating loss $(19.5)M .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • KIMMTRAK’s growth remains durable with sequential and YoY gains; management expects incremental revenue growth in 2025, with US community expansion and new ex‑US launches as key drivers .
  • Near-term catalysts (HIV MAD data Q1 2025; HBV SAD 2H 2025) could broaden the narrative beyond oncology; success signals include reservoir reduction and delayed viral rebound .
  • Melanoma lifecycle management (TEBE‑AM, ATOM) and PRISM‑MEL‑301 dose selection in 2H 2025 are medium-term inflection points; OS/PFS outcomes and dose decisions will shape PRAME’s path .
  • Expense trajectory: R&D to increase in 2025; SG&A flat-ish to Q4 2024; cash of $820.4M and debt repayment provide runway to fund trials and commercialization .
  • Europe reimbursement remains a watch item; UK progress offset by ongoing price talks in Germany/France; expect continued lumpiness and cautious recognition .
  • Trading lens: Without consensus data, focus on sequential growth, pipeline timelines, and any HIV signal disclosure; investor sentiment likely tied to non-oncology readouts and clarity on PRISM/TEBE‑AM milestones .